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Wednesday, November 03, 2004

This was not a fluke... 

A friend of mine suggested that the loss by the Dems yesterday was not that bad, and that there are many compelling reasons to look with hope for the Dems to clean up in the next election. Sadly, I cannot agree. Occam's razor implies that the Democrats have been relegated to the same role in national politics as colmes has on Fox. It is going to take something far worse to happen before the current junta is removed from power.

1. The Republicans control the executive, legislative (both senate and house), gubernatorial and judicial governments. They will control Supreme Court appointments for the next 4 years, and likely 12 when they make it legal for fellows from Austria to become President.

2. The south and central part of our country have become Dem no-go zones. Even the Senate minority leader could not hope to hold onto his spot in South Dakota. The south cleaned house on its Dem senators. Salazar (new Colorado senator), an effective, moderate, extremely likeable man, could barely beat a man running on one of the most cynical platforms in history (no abortion, even to save the Mom's life, lower drinking age and corporate [Coors] tax breaks). Kerry did not recover a single 2000 state, and the demographics are actually against them, as these states are gaining electoral votes. Florida re-elected Jeb, elected Kathleen Harris, and easily voted for Bush this election. Moreover, as the baby boomers age, they too will become more conversative, eliminating the core of the Dem party in states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and other states--the Maxon-Dixon line is moving north.

3. Cheney and DeLay have already publicly stated their majority win means they get to do more fun things. They can be brazen, and their audience only cheers more loudly.

4. The Republicans won an outright majority, by nearly 4 million votes, in spite of the Economist, of all zines, sponsoring Kerry. They did not lose the election as they had done three straight prior. The trend is obvious.

5. Bush started an illegal war to be a "war-time" president for re-election...and people bought it. Social Security, Roe vs. Wade, and peace in Iran and/or Syria will be eliminated in 2005. Essentially, they have proven rule by fear works, and it's always easy to create a new fear, Bush is great at that. Americans are scared because they know they've lost the skills to stay on top. Fear will work for the foreseeable future.

6. The religious right turned out in disproportionate numbers, eliminating any advantage that the Dems may have had by being better organized. You don't need to organize people to go to church.

7. Tony Blair is still toeing the line.

8. The Republicans have many obvious successors to Bush--Schwarzenegger, Jeb (to continue the dynasty), and now a young 33-yr. old south Asian Republican in Louisiana. Who do the Dems have? Obama? Yea, he'll sell in the South and Center, where the % Republican votes were eerily correlated with white % in the population.

9. As Faolin has pointed out, people want to vote for winners. The Republicans have won everything. People like the Yankees, they'll vote Republican.

10. Nader had no impact. The "left" was as united as one can expect for many years to come. I expect it to fragment.

Something will rise from the ashes, but it is going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

-Vulf

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